The Western Connecticut HousingMarket Is Shifting
Transcript:
MARKET SIGNALTM
As of September 25, 2026
The Western Connecticut Housing Market Is Shifting
What the Latest Numbers Tell Us
STEADY — PROCEED WITH CAUTION
A few weeks can make a meaningful difference in a housing market.
Western Connecticut real estate remains active. Homes are selling, buyers are buying, and many sellers are still achieving strong results. But when we look beneath the headline numbers, the market is beginning to behave differently.
In Southbury, Connecticut — our anchor market — recently sold single-family homes took a median 27.5 Days on Market (DOM), compared with a two-year median of 19 days. At the same time, more than half of today’s active single-family listings have been reduced from their original asking price.
Yet recent Southbury sales are still achieving a median 100% of their final asking price.
Those numbers aren’t contradictory. They tell us buyers haven’t disappeared. They are becoming more selective about price and value.
“Yellow isn’t a stop sign. It means strategy matters more.”
27.5 days
Median DOM, recent Southbury single-family sales (two-year median: 19 days)
55%
Active Southbury single-family listings reduced from original asking price (17 of 31)
100%
Median sale-to-final-list-price ratio, recent Southbury sales
Consiglio Homes | Market SignalTM | As of 9/25/26 Page 1
MARKET SIGNALTM Western Connecticut · As of September 25, 2026 TOWN BY TOWN
The Numbers Tell the Story
Looking at Southbury alone doesn’t tell the entire story. We analyzed current single-family activity across Southbury, Newtown, Oxford, Middlebury, Woodbury, Roxbury, Washington, Bridgewater and Bethlehem. The differences are significant.
Town Price Range Active Under Sold Median % Reduced* What It Tells Us Contract DOM*
Southbury
11 31.5 67% 3 38.5 67% 3 21 56%
Under $600K $600–799K $800–999K $1M+
12 8
6 7
9 2
4 0 1 18 0%
Demand remains, but sellers are adjusting prices.
Active buyer demand; pricing matters.
More choice gives buyers greater selectivity.
Small upper-end buyer pool; limited recent activity.
Newtown
Under $600K 17 14 8 23 53% $600–799K 7 15 14 74 86%
Demand remains strong despite more inventory.
Strong contract activity alongside substantial price adjustment among active inventory.
Still active, with more buyer choice.
Inventory substantially exceeds current contract activity.
One of the better sources of attainable family inventory.
Healthy buyer activity.
More inventory than current demand.
Too small a sample for a broader conclusion.
Oxford
Under $600K
$600–799K
$800–999K $1M+
3 9
10 5
4 2 2 0
6 9 0% 4 22.5 40%
1 17.5 25% 0 49 50%
Scarce inventory and strong demand.
More balanced; buyers have choices.
Smaller but functioning upper market.
Very limited activity; small sample.
Middlebury
$800–999K 11 8 $1M+ 20 5
Under $600K 9 7 $600–799K 4 3 $800–999K 6 1
$1M+ 1 1
1 28 27% 2 15.5 25%
4 21 44% 4 17.5 25% 1 11 0%
0 35 0%
Woodbury
Under $600K
$600–799K $800–999K
$1M+
6 2
6 4 5 2
5 0
6 25.5 33%
5 22 33% 1 36 40%
0 99 60%
Recent sales show demand, with relatively little currently under contract.
Healthy core market. Buyer selectivity increases.
Upper-end inventory is accumulating and sellers are adjusting.
Consiglio Homes | Market SignalTM | As of 9/25/26
Page 2
MARKET SIGNALTM
Western Connecticut · As of September 25, 2026
Town Price Range Active Under Sold Median % Reduced* What It Tells Us Contract DOM*
Roxbury
Under $1M $1M–1.49M $1.5M–2.49M $2.5M+
5 3 4 2 0 1 1 2 0 4 0 1
142 80% 117.5 100% 263 100% 48 50%
Activity exists, but longer marketing times and adjustments are common.
Thin buyer pool; pricing adjustments evident.
Distinctive properties can require substantially more time to find their buyer.
Specialized luxury market; small numbers matter.
Washington
Under $1M $1M–1.49M $1.5M–2.49M
$2.5M+
9 2 1 2 6 1
4 3
1 28 67% 0 11 0% 0 20.5 17%
0 125 75%
Buyers have considerable choice and sellers are adjusting.
Very limited supply relative to current contract activity.
Inventory outweighs near-term contract activity.
Luxury buyers exist, but longer exposure and adjustments can be normal.
Bridgewater
Under $1M 1 $1M–1.49M 2 $1.5M–1.99M 1 $2M+ 2
1 2 0 0 1 0 0 2
9 0% 119 100% 23 0%
81.5 50%
Very little available inventory; recent transactions show demand.
Small segment with both active listings already adjusted.
Too small for a market-level conclusion.
High-end properties can sell, but the buyer pool is narrow.
Bethlehem
1 102
1 59 100%
has adjusted price.
Too few properties for a broad conclusion.
No active supply; one property is under contract.
Under $600K
$600–699K
2 2 3 2 1 0
0 18.5 50%
Very little available inventory relative to current demand.
$700–799K
$800K+ 0 1 0 – –
Demand exists while every current 100% active seller in this small sample
*Median DOM and percentage reduced refer to current active listings within each price range. Under Contract combines UC (under contract) and UC-CTS (under contract, continue to show) status. Sold figures reflect single-family closings recorded in the Multiple Listing Service (MLS) from August 19 through September 25, 2026.
Consiglio Homes | Market SignalTM | As of 9/25/26 Page 3
MARKET SIGNALTM Western Connecticut · As of September 25, 2026 READING INVENTORY
More Inventory Doesn’t Necessarily Mean More Choice
One of the easiest housing-market statistics to misinterpret is inventory. Hearing that housing inventory is increasing can sound like buyers suddenly have plenty of homes to choose from. That isn’t necessarily what the data shows.
Oxford · Under $600,000
396
active under contract recently sold
That doesn’t look like an oversupplied market. It looks like buyers are quickly absorbing homes in a price range where relatively little remains available.
Newtown · $1 Million and Above
20 5 2
active under contract recently sold
That’s a very different market.
Conclusion: More inventory does not necessarily mean more of the homes you want — or can afford — are available. The balance between buyers and sellers now changes significantly by town, price range and property type.
LOCAL CONTEXT
Western Connecticut Is Not One Housing Market
Raw listing counts can also be misleading when we compare towns of very different sizes and transaction volumes. Newtown is an important example.
Newtown is geographically much larger than many surrounding communities, and our two-year historical data recorded 623 single-family sales in Newtown versus 321 in Southbury. It should naturally carry more listings and generate more transactions.
So seeing 55 active single-family listings in Newtown versus 31 in Southbury doesn’t automatically mean Newtown is dramatically more oversupplied. We need to ask how much inventory is normal for that particular town, where the inventory is concentrated by price, how quickly homes are entering contracts and how today’s market compares with the town’s own history.
Conclusion: Raw listing counts only become meaningful when we put them in local context.
Consiglio Homes | Market SignalTM | As of 9/25/26 Page 4
MARKET SIGNALTM Western Connecticut · As of September 25, 2026 THE LAND MATTERS
Lot Size Tells Another Part of the Story
The house isn’t always the entire product. Current active single-family listings show just how different these Western Connecticut markets can be:
TOWN
Middlebury Southbury Oxford Newtown Bethlehem Woodbury Washington Roxbury Bridgewater
MEDIAN LOT SIZE
0.81 acres
1.70 acres
2.00 acres 2.01 acres
2.63 acres
3.06 acres
2.84 acres
We use the median, rather than the average, because a handful of very large estates can otherwise distort the picture. A $1 million property in Roxbury isn’t necessarily competing with a $1 million property in Southbury. The buyer may be purchasing something fundamentally different.
Roxbury: Acreage, Privacy and Solitude
The median active single-family property in Roxbury currently sits on approximately 5 acres, compared with 1.7 acres in Southbury and approximately 2 acres in Newtown and Oxford.
Roxbury shoppers are often looking for acreage, privacy and solitude. The land and setting are part of the property they’re buying — not merely the house sitting on it.
Roxbury’s two-year historical median Days on Market was already 55.5 days, substantially longer than Southbury’s 19 days. So a longer marketing period in Roxbury doesn’t automatically signal the same thing it would in Southbury.
5.04 acres
9.07 acres
Conclusion: Market time must be interpreted in the context of the property and the town. A distinctive country property on several acres may simply require more time to connect with a much smaller pool of buyers.
Consiglio Homes | Market SignalTM | As of 9/25/26 Page 5
MARKET SIGNALTM Western Connecticut · As of September 25, 2026 OUR ANCHOR MARKET
What Southbury Is Telling Us
Because Southbury is our anchor market, this is where the change becomes particularly interesting.
Among today’s active Southbury single-family listings, price reductions have become common. But recent sold properties are still achieving a median 100% of final asking price.
A seller can initially list a property too high, reduce the asking price, reach the price buyers perceive as fair — and ultimately sell at or near that final asking price.
THE UPPER END
Buyers Will Pay a Premium — But the Property Has to Justify It
Southbury’s upper end provides another important lesson. There are buyers willing to spend $800,000, $900,000 and even more. We don’t see evidence of a simple price ceiling where buyers suddenly disappear above a particular number.
Instead, buyers appear to become more selective as the price increases. At higher price points, buyers are evaluating the entire value proposition: condition and updates, neighborhood and location, lot and setting, size and layout, amenities, privacy, new construction, waterfront or lake access, and ultimately price relative to all of those attributes.
19 days
Two-year historical median Days on Market
27.5 days
Median Days on Market, recent closed sales
Conclusion: We’re seeing price discovery. Southbury buyers haven’t stopped buying. They’re becoming more disciplined about what they’re willing to pay for a particular property. The margin for pricing error is getting smaller.
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Conclusion: Today’s buyer may pay a premium — but increasingly expects the property to justify the premium.
Consiglio Homes | Market SignalTM | As of 9/25/26 Page 6
MARKET SIGNALTM Western Connecticut · As of September 25, 2026 ATTAINABILITY
Can a Typical Family Actually Find a House?
We looked specifically at current single-family homes with 3+ bedrooms and 1,400–3,000 square feet above grade as a rough proxy for traditional family-size housing.
Town Family-Size Active Median Asking Price
Southbury 13 $715,000 Newtown 20 $907,450
At/Below $600K
4 4 1 7 4 2 3 0 0
At/Below $750K
8 7 7 9 9 4 3 0 1
Oxford 10 Middlebury 12 Woodbury 14 Bethlehem 4 Washington 11 Roxbury 5 Bridgewater 3
$687,000
$575,000
$699,450 $622,450 $929,000 $998,000 $1,495,000
Middlebury stands out. Of 12 current family-size listings, 7 are priced at or below $600,000, with a median asking price of $575,000.
Compare that with Newtown, where there are more family-size homes available — 20 — but the median asking price is $907,450. So Newtown technically offers more inventory. But does it offer more choices to a family whose budget is $600,000? Not necessarily.
So Who Has the Advantage?
There isn’t one answer. In some price ranges, buyers still face scarce inventory and considerable competition. In others, buyers now have substantially more choice. And in some higher-priced segments, sellers are competing with a growing number of alternatives.
The advantage can change from town to town, price range to price range, and sometimes house to house on the same street.
Conclusion: Inventory and affordability are not the same thing. That’s why buyers should look beyond headlines about whether housing inventory is simply ‘up’ or ‘down.’
Conclusion: The market is becoming increasingly segmented. That is arguably the most important takeaway from the current numbers.
Consiglio Homes | Market SignalTM | As of 9/25/26 Page 7
MARKET SIGNALTM Western Connecticut · As of September 25, 2026
What Yellow Means for Sellers
Yellow does not mean ‘don’t sell.’ Homes are still selling, and buyers remain active.
Price correctly from the beginning. The market is showing less tolerance for aspirational pricing.
Understand your competition. Your competition isn’t every house in your town. It’s the homes a buyer will realistically compare with yours at your price point.
Make the value proposition obvious. Condition, presentation, photography, marketing, location, land, amenities and price all work together. When buyers have more choices, those differences matter more.
What Yellow Means for Buyers
Yellow doesn’t mean ‘wait.’ In several parts of Western Connecticut, buyers are beginning to have something they haven’t consistently had in recent years: choice.
More sellers are adjusting prices, some properties are taking longer to sell, and buyers may have greater opportunity to evaluate a home carefully rather than simply racing to beat another offer. But desirable homes in scarce price ranges can still move quickly.
Conclusion: Buyers need to know where leverage actually exists. The opportunity isn’t uniform across Western Connecticut.
The Bottom Line
The Western Connecticut housing market hasn’t stopped. It’s shifting.
Demand remains. Homes are selling. Some price ranges remain remarkably tight.
But buyers are becoming more selective, price reductions are becoming more common in portions of the market, and higher-priced sellers increasingly need to demonstrate why their property deserves its premium.
STEADY — PROCEED WITH CAUTION
Not because the market is bad. Because the market is becoming more nuanced.
For sellers, that means preparation, positioning and pricing matter more. For buyers, it means opportunities may be emerging — but they vary substantially by town and price range. The numbers tell the story. You just have to know which numbers matter.
About This Market SignalTM
Market SignalTM measures current single-family residential activity across Southbury, Newtown, Oxford, Middlebury, Woodbury, Roxbury, Washington, Bridgewater and Bethlehem, Connecticut.
Southbury serves as our anchor market, with surrounding towns providing context for broader Western Connecticut housing-market conditions.
Where historical comparisons are made, current conditions are compared with our two-year single-family baseline. Equivalent two-year historical data is not included in this analysis for Washington, Bridgewater and Bethlehem, so we do not make unsupported historical comparisons for those towns.
Consiglio Homes | Market SignalTM | As of 9/25/26 Page 8
MARKET SIGNALTM Western Connecticut · As of September 25, 2026 Condominiums are analyzed separately because their pricing, ownership costs, inventory and buyer dynamics can
differ substantially from detached single-family homes.
Current analysis reflects Multiple Listing Service (MLS) data available through September 25, 2026. Small sample sizes, particularly in rural and luxury markets, can produce large percentage swings and should be interpreted accordingly.
Wondering What This Market Means
for You?
Whether you’re considering selling, buying, downsizing or simply wondering what your home may be worth in today’s market, the answer depends on more than a regional headline.
It depends on your town, your price range and your property.
Lori Consiglio | REALTOR®
Consiglio Homes
Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate | Gaetano Marra Homes 203-725-4464 · lori@consigliohomes.com · ConsiglioHomes.com
Christine Curtis | Marketing Strategist, Consiglio Homes
Consiglio Homes | Market SignalTM | As of 9/25/26 Page 9
