# Market Signal™: Green
### Southbury + Surrounding Towns | September 2026
**Two Years of Western Connecticut Real Estate Reveal Six Very Different Markets**
*Data Period: July 31, 2024 through August 18, 2026*
**Know when to move. Know when to wait.**
Our recent Southbury Market Signal™ raised an interesting question: How does Southbury compare with the towns immediately surrounding it?
If you're curious about how your town compares with your neighbors — or you're considering relocating within Western Connecticut — I think you'll enjoy what we found.
Are homes selling at similar prices? Are buyers getting more house for their money in one town than another? Are properties taking about the same amount of time to sell? And how closely are final sale prices tracking sellers' final asking prices?
So, we went deeper.
Using approximately two years of SmartMLS¹ transaction data, I analyzed Southbury, Middlebury, Woodbury, Oxford, Newtown and Roxbury.
Rather than simply accepting the property classifications in the original searches, we also reviewed the transactions to make sure we were comparing like properties with like properties.
And as we worked through the data, something else became increasingly clear:
> **To understand the numbers, you first have to understand the communities behind them.**
These towns differ not only in population and geography, but also in the kinds of residential real estate that are bought and sold within them. Traditional single-family homes, detached homes with condominium ownership, attached condominiums, 55+ communities, common-interest developments, manufactured homes and large-acreage properties can all affect the statistics we see.
## Why These Six Towns?
Southbury is our hometown and the anchor of our market.
But buyers don't necessarily shop according to town boundaries.
Depending on what matters most — price, property, acreage, schools, commute, lifestyle, town character or proximity to family — the same buyer may reasonably consider several neighboring communities.
- **Southbury** combines Main Street conveniences with traditional neighborhoods, farms and rural areas, historic Southford and South Britain, lakes, rivers, parks, preserved land and a substantial 55+ community.
- **Middlebury** has Lake Quassapaug, the popular paved Middlebury Greenway, established neighborhoods and an important mix of traditional single-family homes and detached condominium ownership.
- **Woodbury** is known for its historic Main Street, classic New England architecture, antiques, shops, restaurants, parks and land preserves.
- **Oxford** combines substantial rural areas with newer development, including Quarry Walk, Oxford Greens and the new construction at The Bridges at Oxford Greens, along with Jackson Cove on Lake Zoar, Waterbury-Oxford Airport and growing commercial areas.
- **Newtown** encompasses its historic Borough and Main Street as well as Sandy Hook, Hawleyville, Botsford and Dodgingtown, creating several distinct settings within one very large town. Its for-sale housing also includes condominium, active-adult and manufactured-home communities.
- **Roxbury** offers something different again: a quiet, rural Litchfield Hills setting known for privacy, historic properties, winding country roads and substantial acreage.
Six neighboring towns. Six very different communities.
### Earlier This Year, Three of These Towns Received National Attention
Earlier this year, Travel + Leisure® included Southbury, Middlebury and Woodbury among its "10 Best Places to Live in Connecticut."
Seeing three towns from our primary market area receive national recognition certainly caught our attention.
A national article can highlight what makes a community appealing. Our analysis asks a different question: **What has actually been happening in each town's real estate market?**
## Here's What We Found
### The Two-Year Single-Family Baseline Analysis
*July 31, 2024 through August 18, 2026*
| Town | Approx. Population | Town Size | Closed Sales | Median Sale Price | Median Sq. Ft. | Median Acres | Median DOM | Sale Price vs. Final Asking Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southbury | 20,500 | 39.0 sq. mi. | 321 | $615,000 | 2,444 | 1.63 | 19 days | 100% |
| Middlebury | 8,100 | 17.8 sq. mi. | 152 | $517,500 | 2,137 | 0.995 | 25.5 days | 100% |
| Woodbury | 10,000 | 36.5 sq. mi. | 189 | $590,000 | 2,148 | 1.95 | 31 days | 99% |
| Oxford | 13,300 | 32.7 sq. mi. | 193 | $575,000 | 2,096 | 1.73 | 12 days | 100% |
| Newtown | 28,200 | 57.5 sq. mi. | 623 | $665,000 | 2,304 | 1.46 | 18 days | 100% |
| Roxbury | 2,200 | 26.4 sq. mi. | 84 | $1,287,500 | 2,802 | 5.06 | 55.5 days | 96% |
*Population figures are rounded to provide community context. Town Size represents municipal land area. Median Acres reflects the median reported lot size of the Single-Family transactions analyzed. Sale Price vs. Final Asking Price compares what a home ultimately sold for with the seller's last asking price before the sale — for example, 100% means the median home sold for its final asking price; 96% means it sold for about 4% below the final asking price.*
The town-size column immediately gives us some important context. Newtown is in a category of its own geographically at approximately 57.5 square miles. It's about 47% larger than Southbury, 58% larger than Woodbury, 76% larger than Oxford, more than twice the size of Roxbury and more than three times the size of Middlebury. That matters when we compare the number of homes changing hands.
Home and lot size give us another useful perspective. Middlebury, Woodbury and Oxford had remarkably similar median single-family home sizes — roughly 2,100 square feet — but very different prices and selling times. Their median lot sizes differed considerably, too.
And Roxbury stands apart again. Its median single-family home was 2,802 square feet on 5.06 acres, reinforcing just how different that market is from its neighbors.
## The Communities Behind the Numbers
A raw number of closed sales doesn't tell us how large a town is, how many people live there or how its for-sale housing inventory is structured.
Newtown recorded 623 traditional single-family sales compared with 321 in Southbury. At first glance, that makes Newtown appear to have nearly twice the traditional Single-Family activity.
But the comparison changes when we put those numbers in context.
Newtown covers approximately 57.5 square miles compared with Southbury's 39.0, has approximately 28,200 residents compared with Southbury's 20,500, and its for-sale housing inventory is much more heavily weighted toward traditional single-family ownership.
Southbury has another unusual characteristic that substantially affects its numbers: **Heritage Village.**
- Southbury: ~20,500
- Heritage Village: ~4,500
- Rest of Southbury: ~16,000
Heritage Village and the rest of Southbury are subsets of Southbury's total population. Approximately 4,500 Southbury residents live in Heritage Village — roughly 22% of the entire town population.
Because Heritage Village is condominium ownership, its sales properly appear in our Condo analysis rather than traditional Single Family.
Southbury recorded 501 Condo sales and 321 traditional Single-Family sales during the study period. Newtown recorded 69 Condo sales and 623 traditional Single-Family sales.
This is why raw transaction counts need context. Newtown recorded nearly twice as many traditional single-family sales as Southbury, but it is also substantially larger geographically, has a larger population and has a housing inventory much more heavily weighted toward traditional single-family ownership.
Southbury's 501 condominium sales compared with 321 traditional single-family sales tell a very different story about how housing ownership is distributed within the town.
Newtown's for-sale housing inventory is varied too. It includes condominium and active-adult communities such as Regency at Newtown, Walnut Tree Village, Liberty at Newtown and Newtown Woods, along with other condominium developments and manufactured or leased-land homes that can be bought and sold.
Middlebury provides another example of why the categories need explanation. A meaningful portion of its condominium market consists of detached houses that may look like traditional single-family homes but are legally condominium ownership.
We're comparing communities with very different populations, geography and forms of residential ownership.
### Southbury: One Town, Several Distinct Markets
Southbury recorded 321 traditional single-family sales, with a $615,000 median sale price, 2,444 median square feet, 1.63 median acres, 19 median Days on Market and a 100% Sale Price vs. Final Asking Price.
But Single Family tells only part of Southbury's story.
Our analysis recorded considerably more condominium transactions than traditional single-family transactions: 501 Condo sales versus 321 Single-Family sales.
Heritage Village helps explain why. With approximately 4,500 residents, Heritage Village alone represents roughly one out of every five Southbury residents.
Southbury also contains other condominium and common-interest communities. Traditions demonstrates why ownership classification matters particularly well. Its detached homes may look like conventional single-family houses, but their legal ownership structure places them in our Condo analysis.
**What does that mean in September 2026?** Southbury isn't adequately described by one median price — or even by its Single-Family market alone. Which part of the Southbury market are we talking about?
### Middlebury: A House Isn't Necessarily Single-Family Ownership
Middlebury recorded 152 traditional single-family sales, with a $517,500 median sale price, 2,137 median square feet, 0.995 median acres, 25.5 median Days on Market and a 100% Sale Price vs. Final Asking Price.
But Middlebury is particularly interesting because of what we found when we separated properties according to ownership rather than appearance.
Middlebury recorded another 71 condominium sales during the same period. And these aren't necessarily what someone pictures when they hear the word "condo."
A meaningful portion of Middlebury's condominium inventory consists of detached homes. They may have their own driveway, garage and yard area and look very much like traditional single-family homes. Legally, however, they're condominium ownership.
**What does that mean in September 2026?** When someone says, "The median condo price in Middlebury was $569,900," you need to know what's actually inside that category before comparing it with condos somewhere else. Those aren't always the same thing.
### Woodbury: Similar Size and Price, Very Different Pace
Woodbury recorded 189 single-family sales, with a $590,000 median sale price, 2,148 median square feet, 1.95 median acres, 31 median Days on Market and a 99% Sale Price vs. Final Asking Price.
The comparison with Oxford becomes especially interesting:
- **Woodbury** — $590,000 | 2,148 sq. ft. | 1.95 acres | 31 DOM
- **Oxford** — $575,000 | 2,096 sq. ft. | 1.73 acres | 12 DOM
The median homes were only 52 square feet apart. Their median lot sizes were also relatively close. Their median sale prices were only $15,000 apart. But their median marketing times differed by 19 days.
Woodbury also has only about 10,000 residents despite covering 36.5 square miles — nearly the same physical size as Southbury.
**What does that mean in September 2026?** Two neighboring markets can sell similarly sized homes on similarly sized lots at similar prices — and still operate at very different speeds.
### Oxford: More Than a Traditional Single-Family Market
Oxford recorded 193 single-family sales, with a $575,000 median sale price, 2,096 median square feet, 1.73 median acres, 12 median Days on Market and a 100% Sale Price vs. Final Asking Price.
Twelve days was the shortest median DOM among all six towns.
Oxford Greens represents a significant active-adult component of Oxford's for-sale housing inventory, with different ownership structures represented within the broader community. That's why we reviewed those transactions individually rather than assuming every property belonged in the same category.
The community continues to grow with new construction at The Bridges at Oxford Greens. Oxford also has manufactured homes that are bought and sold, another ownership type that shouldn't automatically be grouped with traditional fee-simple Single Family.
**What does that mean in September 2026?** Oxford was the fastest-moving traditional single-family market of the six during our study period. Town-level statistics make more sense when we understand what's behind them.
### Newtown: There Is Simply More Newtown
Newtown recorded 623 traditional single-family sales, with a $665,000 median sale price, 2,304 median square feet, 1.46 median acres, 18 median Days on Market and a 100% Sale Price vs. Final Asking Price.
That's substantial transaction volume. But here's the context that matters: Newtown is enormous compared with the other five towns in this analysis.
At approximately 57.5 square miles, it is 47% larger than Southbury, 58% larger than Woodbury, 76% larger than Oxford, more than twice the size of Roxbury and more than three times the size of Middlebury. It also has the largest population of the six at approximately 28,200 residents.
So when we see 623 traditional single-family transactions, we shouldn't immediately interpret that as Newtown having a dramatically more active or stronger market. There is simply more Newtown — more land, more residents and more traditional single-family housing inventory.
Newtown includes condominium and active-adult communities such as Regency at Newtown, Walnut Tree Village, Liberty at Newtown and Newtown Woods. It also includes manufactured and leased-land homes. We encountered 19 such transactions in the original Single-Family records and excluded them from our traditional fee-simple Single-Family analysis so they wouldn't distort that comparison.
**What does that mean in September 2026?** Newtown clearly has substantial traditional single-family activity. 623 sales is still important. But without knowing the community behind that number, it doesn't tell the whole story.
### Roxbury: A Completely Different Measuring Stick
Roxbury recorded 84 single-family sales, with a $1,287,500 median sale price, 2,802 median square feet, 5.06 median acres, 55.5 median Days on Market and a 96% Sale Price vs. Final Asking Price.
Roxbury has only about 2,200 residents, yet covers approximately 26.4 square miles.
The median Roxbury single-family property sold during the study period had 5.06 acres, compared with between roughly one and two acres in the other five towns.
**What does that mean in September 2026?** Roxbury requires a different measuring stick. Its small population, low density, higher prices, larger homes, substantially larger lots, lower transaction volume and longer historical marketing time describe a fundamentally different market.
## The Two-Year Condominium Market
| Town | Closed Sales | Median Sale Price | Median Sq. Ft. | Median DOM | Sale Price vs. Final Asking Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southbury | 501 | $305,000 | 1,398 | 36 days | 98% |
| Middlebury | 71 | $569,900 | 2,252 | 31 days | 100% |
| Woodbury | 103 | $259,900 | 1,182 | 21 days | 98% |
| Oxford | 79 | $635,000 | 2,008 | 27 days | 100% |
| Newtown | 69 | $490,000 | 1,483 | 26 days | 100% |
| Roxbury | 0 | — | — | — | — |
**"Condo" doesn't necessarily mean small, attached or inexpensive.**
Middlebury makes that particularly clear. Its median condominium was larger and more expensive than its median traditional single-family home.
Oxford's $635,000 condominium median was also higher than its $575,000 traditional Single-Family median.
Southbury demonstrates yet another type of condominium market, with Heritage Village representing an enormous portion of its condo activity.
The ownership label alone doesn't tell you what the property looks like.
## The Two-Year Land Market
Land is a very small part of the transaction picture across all six towns.
| Town | Closed Land Sales | Median Sale Price | Median Acres | Median DOM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southbury | 15 | $149,900 | 2.13 | 63 days |
| Middlebury | 9 | $200,000 | 1.89 | 97 days |
| Woodbury | 10 | $127,500 | 3.62 | 41 days |
| Oxford | 9 | $170,000 | 6.20 | 80 days |
| Newtown | 12 | $293,581 | 4.75 | 103 days |
| Roxbury | 10 | $465,000 | 13.26 | 73.5 days |
Across all six towns, only 65 land transactions closed during the study period.
The acreage differences are substantial. Southbury and Middlebury had median parcels of approximately two acres. Oxford and Newtown were larger at 6.20 and 4.75 acres.
Roxbury was in a completely different category, with a 13.26-acre median parcel and a $465,000 median sale price.
Land is a small-volume market, and the parcels being sold vary dramatically from town to town.
## What About Multifamily?
Multifamily properties that are bought and sold represent an even smaller segment of these six markets.
| Town | Closed Sales | Median Sale Price | Median Sq. Ft. | Median DOM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southbury | 2 | $530,000 | 2,783 | 38.5 days |
| Middlebury | 4 | $475,000 | 2,111 | 41 days |
| Woodbury | 6 | $435,000 | 2,224 | 46.5 days |
| Oxford | 2 | $680,000 | 2,626 | 18.5 days |
| Newtown | 2 | $587,500 | 3,347 | 22.5 days |
| Roxbury | 0 | — | — | — |
With sample sizes this small, the medians shouldn't be used to make broad claims. The meaningful finding is simply that for-sale multifamily properties are scarce in these six communities.
## One Number Demonstrates Why All of This Matters
Consider the historical median Days on Market for traditional Single Family:
- Oxford — 12 days
- Newtown — 18 days
- Southbury — 19 days
- Middlebury — 25.5 days
- Woodbury — 31 days
- Roxbury — 55.5 days
Now imagine a house has been listed for 20 days. In Oxford, it has already exceeded the historical median. In Newtown and Southbury, it's around the historical range. In Middlebury and Woodbury, it hasn't yet reached the historical median. In Roxbury, 20 days is still relatively early.
That's why saying "This house has been sitting" isn't enough. Sitting compared with what?
## What Are We Watching in September 2026?
This two-year analysis gives us our measuring stick. Now we can compare today's market with it.
We're watching inventory, Days on Market relative to each town's historical baseline, price reductions, Sale Price vs. Final Asking Price, closed sales, new construction and whether several indicators begin moving together.
That's where a Market Signal™ becomes useful.
### What Does This Mean If You're Selling?
Historical sales tell us what buyers have supported. They don't automatically tell us what someone will pay for your particular property today.
Property type matters. Ownership matters. Square footage matters. Acreage matters. Condition matters. Price range matters. Location within the town matters. And today's competition matters.
What is today's market telling us about this particular property?
### What Does This Mean If You're Buying?
A property's Days on Market can be useful information — but only when you know what's normal for that particular market. The same applies to median sale price.
And we've now seen that even the words "single-family house" and "condo" require some context. A median is a midpoint. It isn't an appraisal, and it isn't a prediction.
**Context changes the meaning of the number.**
## Our Biggest Conclusion
After reviewing approximately two years of actual transactions across these six neighboring Western Connecticut towns:
**Six Neighboring Towns. Six Distinct Real Estate Markets.**
- **Southbury** — a substantial condominium market alongside traditional Single Family
- **Middlebury** — a significant detached-condominium component that changes how its numbers should be interpreted
- **Woodbury** — a geographically large but relatively small-population community where similarly sized homes can move at a very different pace
- **Oxford** — a growing community where speed stands out alongside an important active-adult and common-interest component
- **Newtown** — by far the largest geographic market in this analysis, with the largest population and substantial traditional single-family inventory
- **Roxbury** — a very small population spread across a large rural area, with larger homes, substantially larger lots, higher prices and a completely different market rhythm
Land and multifamily activity are comparatively small across all six. None makes one town better than another. And none predicts what happens next. What the data give us is context.
## This Is Our Baseline. Now We Watch What Happens Next.
Our original Southbury Market Signal™ raised questions. This deeper analysis gave us a much better framework for answering them.
And reviewing the individual transactions taught us something equally important: **Good market analysis isn't simply pulling an MLS report. It's understanding what's inside it.**
Going forward, the Consiglio Homes Market Signal™ can compare current inventory, pricing, Days on Market, price reductions, Sale Price vs. Final Asking Price and transaction activity against this consistent two-year historical baseline.
We're looking for the signal inside the data.
Because ultimately, the question isn't whether someone says housing is hot, cold, up, down or shifting. It's:
> **What does our local market mean for the real estate decision you're trying to make today?**
---
**Lori Consiglio, REALTOR®**
Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate | Gaetano Marra Homes
Consiglio Homes
**Christine Curtis**
Marketing Strategist, Consiglio Homes
*Helping You Make Confident Real Estate Decisions*
*Rooted in Southbury. Serving Western Connecticut.*
---
### Methodology & Data Notes
¹ SmartMLS is the regional multiple listing service database used by Connecticut real estate professionals to list and track properties and sales.
Consiglio Homes analyzed closed transactions from July 31, 2024 through August 18, 2026, inclusive, for Southbury, Middlebury, Woodbury, Oxford, Newtown and Roxbury. The same closing-date period was applied across towns and property types to maintain an apples-to-apples comparison.
Closed sales represent properties that sold and closed during the study period. Median sale price represents the midpoint of the transactions rather than the average; median is used because unusually high- or low-priced transactions can disproportionately affect an average. Median square footage reflects the midpoint of reported above-grade living area. Median acreage reflects the midpoint of reported lot acreage. Days on Market (DOM) reflects how long a property was marketed before going under contract.
Sale Price vs. Final Asking Price compares what a property ultimately sold for with the seller's last asking price before the sale. It does not necessarily compare the sale price with the property's original list price.
Condominiums and traditional single-family homes were analyzed separately. If the homeowner owns the residence and its individually deeded parcel of land, we classify the property as Single Family. If the property is legally condominium ownership, where the homeowner owns the unit but the land and common property are held through the condominium association, we classify it as Condo. A detached house can therefore be classified as a condominium. An HOA alone does not determine the category.
**Transactions of Note:** Southbury — eight Traditions/common-interest transactions were reclassified from Single Family to Condo under the ownership methodology. Nine additional Southbury Single Family closings dated after August 18 were excluded because they fell outside the analysis period. Middlebury — transactions identified during the ownership review, including properties on Pommel Lane and Caveson Court, were reclassified where legal ownership was condominium rather than fee-simple Single Family. Oxford — transactions on Meadow Brook Road and Mulligan Drive were reclassified from Single Family to Condo; Oxford Greens transactions were reviewed individually according to legal ownership rather than assigning the entire community to one property type. Newtown — 19 leased-land/manufactured-home transactions were excluded from the traditional fee-simple Single Family analysis. Woodbury and Roxbury required no Single Family ownership reclassification under this review.
Land statistics reflect closed Lots & Land transactions recorded in SmartMLS during the same study period. Multifamily statistics should be interpreted cautiously because transaction counts are small.
Population figures are rounded for readability and are included to provide community context rather than as a variable in the real-estate analysis. Town land-area figures provide geographic context for transaction volume and should not be interpreted as the amount of developable or residential land within each municipality.
Travel + Leisure® is a registered trademark of its respective owner. Consiglio Homes is not affiliated with or endorsed by Travel + Leisure.
*Consiglio Homes analysis of SmartMLS data. Median statistics describe the transactions analyzed and should not be interpreted as the valuation of an individual property. Information is provided for general market context and is not an appraisal or prediction of future market performance.*
